Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Quick Math
Monday, November 14, 2011
Hmmm....What?!
-The Marlins will probably sign Reyes for 5 years, 18-20M
-The Mets cannot offer Reyes anything near that money
-The clincher: when asked if the Mets' decreased payroll affects their ability to sign Reyes, "I wouldn't say that was necessarily the case," said Alderson. How very ambiguous of you.
Sandy Alderson doesn't seem like he's invested much, if any, energy in trying to court Reyes. In fact, to sum up the correspondence he's had with Reyes's agent, Alderson used the term "phone tag." I play phone tag with an old friend I know I'll be seeing for the holidays. Not a key free agent for whom I am supposedly doing all I can to re-sign. Well, not supposedly, but ?I think should be. And listen, I'm not saying that Alderson should offer whatever money is necessary to woo Reyes, but at least let the guy know you're interested.
Maybe now I'm just talking as a fan. But even if they know they couldn't go higher than, say 80 over 4 years, or even 80 over 5 whatever the number, the Mets should be aggressive at least with what resources they have. That way, at the end of the day, Mets fans can at least say "we did what we could." It's a lot better than "I left him like 3 messages."
*
Oh, and did I mention this? I'm not sure if you could argue that Kemp and Reyes mean as much to their respective clubs as one another, but:
Both play key defensive positions; both are coming off career years; one is 27, the other 28; both are fan favorites.
Now, the Dodgers don't have an owner and they are somehow able to commit $160,000,000 to one player. Who is writing his checks? Spam, I realize you and I spoke of this earlier, but what the heck? Met ownership has less money than Dodgers ownership, who - if I may repeat myself - is undetermined!
But seriously, putting money aside, why do I get the feeling like the Mets are not at all motivated to go after Reyes? It just seems to me like Alderson should be more vocal; if he really feels like he's unable to go after Reyes, say so. If going after isn't the game plan for health concerns or any other strategic reason, it would be nice to know that management is at least following reason and not being guided by the wilponzis.
This is going to be a long off season, which may not quickly enough turn into a long season.
-Natron
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Are Jew Serious
Having said all that, it would be interesting to see this "dream team" of Jewish baseball players. Here's my starting lineup (assuming these players actually identify themselves as Jewish). The retired players I name here were those specifically named in the article:
C Brad Ausmus
1B Ike Davis
2B Ian Kinsler
3B Kevin Youkilis
SS Danny Valencia
LF Ryan Braun
CF Sam Fuld
RF Shawn Green
DH: Gabe Kapler (I think the WBC uses the DH throughout)
SP: Jason Marquis
RP: Scott Feldman, Craig Breslow, John Grabow, Scott Schoenweis (no telling how many you'll need to follow Marquis)
This list owes a tip of my hat to bleacherrport.com and a playful wag of my finger to dandykoufax.com. The idea of tip my of my hat/wag of my finger, of course, pays homage to Stephen "I'm not Jewish but that Stuart guy is" Colbert.
NB: It's true, it's true, I am a J-E-W.
-Natron
New Math
"The Mets already have $65 million committed to pitcher Johan Santana, third baseman David Wright and left fielder Jason Bay"
Am I missing something here? Here are the salaries of these players, respectively, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts (which, by the way, I love): 24, 15.25, 18.13 = just over 57 Million dollars. That's a lot of money, but entirely different from $65M. Why does ESPN continue to forgo fact checking? I'm not suggesting 8 Million dollars will determine if the Mets can sign Reyes to a long term, 100+ million dollar contract - but $8M is a lot of money. Enough to determine other free agent signings this off season, to be sure.
Can you imagine if CNN reported the GNP with a 12% error? Or if the New York Times reported that the annual salary of some CEO was 12% off from what it actually is? They'd have to dedicate an article to correcting their erroneous ways. I don't know why I get so annoyed when I find errors like these on ESPN. Maybe it's because I feel like I could do a better job at it. Maybe because I think it takes away from the good reporting that they do have on their site. Or maybe I'm just anal.
-Natron
Addendum:
Case in point
Rod Barajas did NOT hit 50 homers over the last two years. He's hit 33. Going back to the last 3 years, he has hit 52 home runs. ESPN is turning me into a curmudgeon. A curmudgeon, I say!
Update to Addendum:
Seems someone up there (in Bristol, that is) likes me; they have changed "50" to "33" (as of 8:46 pm tonight).
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
Still Cold Here (not just talking about snow)
This is all great, especially that last factoid, but I can't wait for contracts to get signed. With the recent initiation of Free Agency, we should start to hear a lot more rumors going 'round. Pujols, Fielder, and Mark Buerhle round out my top 3 FA's. By the way, doesn't it seem odd how under-appreciated Buerhle is these days...I mean, the guy has a no-no and a perfecto! and in that no-no he picked off the only batter he walked. Who was that batter? Answer below). Now, for all the anxiety, don't expect the Reyes to sign with the Mets any time soon - if at all. I heard Joe 7 Evan on 660 WFAN bandy about a 4 year 100 million dollar offer to Reyes. If the Mets are going to have a payroll around $100, I don't see how you can afford to pay (yea I'm rounding here) Reyes 25, Santana 25, Bay 17, and Wright 16. For those (not) calculating at home, that leaves $17 million dollars left to field 21 more players, including an entire pitching staff (with or without Johan, which remains to be seen). Ok, this post has turned from prospective to depressing, so let's move on...
Well, this is good to finally happen, though I'm still not clear as to how this will affect the Mets' offense vs. defense. At the very least, the walls will now be Met Blue instead of Suicidal Soot (yea, that's right, I said soot).
Here's to the hot stove season.
-Natron
Sunday, August 7, 2011
Beltran and the $100 Million Contracts
I think they did get what they paid for in Beltran, with the knowledge that contracts over $100M usually produce dire results. Centerfielder Vernon Wells, Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Jason Giambi, Griffey, Zito, and Carlos Lee all were disasters. Not-so-great 100M signings include Todd Helton, Alfonso Soriano, Beltran... Many are in progress and need hindsight to judge (Tulowitzki, Miguel Cabrera, Tex, CC, Cliff Lee, Ryan Howard, A-Rod, and Santana), but I'd say the two best deals are probably Manny and Jeter.
I got the list from sporcle, actually: http://www.sporcle.
I was actually gonna point out to you two that the Yankees have allowed fewer runs this year than the Bosox - and that boggles my mind in so many ways.
-Natron
I think you have to give Tex and CC - and to a lesser extent A-rod - a successful grade for the simple fact that, with those guys, the Yanks won a World Series. Also take into account that each of them were major contributors to winning that championship, which adds to my argument. I think if Beltran had won a WS with the Mets and played at least as well during that year you could call it a success. But given his uneven numbers and recent spat of injuries I think overall for what the Mets thought his impact would be, it was a failing grade or at least a "D."
I do agree most $100+ million contracts end up being bad ideas. Sadly there are a lot of ex-Yankees on that list Natron produced. A-Rod is sort of an enigma. He won the WS but creates a LOT of distractions by just being a complete moron in the best cases and an outright cheater in the worst. He also doesn't seem to learn from any of his mistakes (see poker and the fact that he still employs his cousin whom he said gave him steroids). That being said, his presence has generated a TON of money for the Yanks (through television ratings, ticket sales, jerseys and other merchandise sales, etc.) and also add to that a WS title during his tenure and he's a passing grade, although sometimes he does feel like a failure.
Jeter, for all the talk about how overrated and overpaid he is, was always a great signing for the Yanks. Maybe he wouldn't have been on other teams, but for the Yanks he's worth every penny. BTW, he's been hitting the hell out of the ball lately and has his average up to above .280. Perhaps rumors of his demise were a bit premature. He might not be what he once was, but a shortstop in that lineup batting .280 with a flare for the dramatic is more than passable.
-Ronjaya
Just a quick chime-in: Natron poined out (during a real life conversation!) that A-Rod may be producing at a high clip - we're just talking about the on-field production - but is he producing numbers that are almost twice as good as Beltran's? Because his contract pays him an average of $27.5M per year versus Beltran's average of $17M.
-StanO
Thursday, August 4, 2011
Beltran's Met Legacy
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Who's on First?
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
Mets and Scouting
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/4007/freddy-garcia
Interesting, because he was so "bad" that he never made it to the Mets' Major League squad.
Then there's Jason Vargas:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/6352/jason-vargas
Sort of thrown into a deal the Mets made. But he got dumped for nothing. He's had a couple of solid years in a row. I guess I can't complain too much, though, because we have Justin Turner, Ruben Tejada, and Angel Pagan who have come out of nowhere, and... well, I can't think of any pitchers.
-StanO
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
Interesting All-Star Ideas
Monday, June 6, 2011
Monday, May 23, 2011
Fred Wilpon Rips his Team
-Natron
It also pretty much seals the deal that those guys will not be back with the club so any hope Mets fans had of rebuilding with them should be gone. I wouldn't be surprised if this outburst further declines attendance and ticket sales.
-Ronjaya
It might very well reflect in ticket sales. I'd come to terms with the reality of not keeping either for a while now, but as the article says, you can't publicly show that as the owner.
-Natron
I would say this is right up there with Steinbrenner's worst rants, and might even top them. I can't recall him ever questioning what would amount to his core three like that. Or at least core two in Reyes and Wright. It would be like Steinbrenner ripping Jeter and Rivera.
-Ronjaya
It would be like Steinbrenner ripping Jeter two years ago on the edge of free agency. He did shady stuff but rarely if ever did he say something that would have been bad business. Not exactly comparable, but the closest I could think in Yankee world was when Cashman recently said the Mets abused Feliciano. Comparable in that it made him look dumb, but not comparable cuz he's not the owner and he wasn't talking about franchise players. So, in short, the Yankees have only committed a degree of the crime Wilpon made in this interview.
-Natron
Yeah Cashman has definitely said some stupid things lately. He didn't handle the Rivera or Jeter free agency very well in my opinion, the Feliciano thing was not smart and even the Posada thing was too public. It's almost like now that Steinbrenner is gone, Cashman feels empowered, like a spoiled kid. Still though, he has enough sense not to outright bash the players like Wilpon did, that really shocked me to read.
-Ronjaya
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/05/30/110530fa_fact_toobin?currentPage=all
By the way, how was Wilpon tampering? They're his players under contract. With whom did he tamper?
-StanO
Monday, May 9, 2011
An Injured Met? Inconceivable
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Pelfrey on the Blocks, Maybe?
They Stole it from Us
Let's Make Money!
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Ollie and Management
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
And the Season's Over!
-Ronjaya
I saw that, too! Thought it was great.
-StanO
I heard about this on Boomer and Carton today. I thinks it's hilarious but, as far as business goes, the operator or whomever it is has to get canned. But hey maybe Letterman will hire him?
"Aaaand the season's over"
-Natron
Any Met fan worth his/her salt would think that it was a great clip. How did it end up playing into the broadcast? (I mean, how did the two exactly intertwine?). Yes, I just judged all Mets fans.
-StanO
Sunday, April 3, 2011
Your First Pitch
-StanO
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Master of Ceremonies
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2011/03/31/first-pitch-mike-mussina-kicks-off-yankees-2011-season/http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2011/03/31/first-pitch-mike-mussina-kicks-off-yankees-2011-season/
If the Cardinals just had Jim Edmonds throw out their first pitch and das Yankees are gonna have Mike Mussina throw out their first pitch, who should the Mets pick? Let's say of players who have retired in the past 2 seasons. I'm gonna cheat a little bit and say we invite Pedro Martinez. He claims not to be retired, but then again would Pedro really decline the opportunity to return to the bright lights of New York (and the dimmer lights of Citi Field)? It'd make me wanna go to Opening Day even more this year, and I'm sure Pedro would get a kick out of it. I can just picture him pitching from a full wind up!
What do y'all think?
-Natron
Monday, March 28, 2011
Break it Down
I read this article expecting to disagree with the headline, and I did. But then again, Shoenfield doesn't seem to think Bruce has reached his peak, either. Looking at the list of Top 20 OPS+ by Age 23 Hitters since 2001, Bruce ranks 12th, with much of today's elite filling out the rest. Top 3, in order, are Phat Albert, Miguel Cabrera, and TAFKAP Fielder. I guess ESPN's method of attracting my attention worked...anyway, onto the Metserology:
Wright, unsurprisingly, ranked 9th with a 133 OPS+ in 2006 (and had a 139 OPS+ at 22). Of course, he's gone on to maintain a 137 OPS+ . Almost at the bottom, but still weighing in at 19th, Reyes achieved a 115 OPS+ in 2006, but only 107 OPS+ since (his high of 118 coming in 2008). He beats out Asdrubul Cabrera, for what that's worth, but stands in a group of players like Hanley Ramirez, Joe Mauer, Evan Longoria, and other fantastic players. Including -
Ike Davis 115 OPS+ last year
Shoenfield comments that Ike is the list's only rookie (also the only comment that is worthwhile). There are very few guys on this list who didn't have at least one excellent season after their age 23 year. Which leads me to believe that Davis has a lot of potential in that bat. If he can stay healthy, even a slump at the plate is offset by his slick glove-work. I hope Reyes does not follow the path of Grady Sizemore and Eric Chavez, who have lost entire seasons due to injury. Reyes is still young enough that he can have another standout season, but in all these cases all that matters is health.
I came out of this article expecting Jay Bruce to have a standout season in 2011. I'd consider a repeat of 127 OPS+ from the best defensive RF in the game outstanding. Now, though, I'm excited at the prospect of our 1B doing the same.
-Natron
Sunday, March 27, 2011
For Anyone Who Thinks Managers Don't Make a Difference
But read this and take another p.o.v.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/
Where's Shea?
Citifield
Monday, March 21, 2011
A Response to the Mets History
As Natron pointed out (in a real, face-to-face interaction): Castillo will probably hit a walk-off home-run against the Mets. That and score 100r with an injured Utley ahead of him...
A L'il Mets History
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Ollie's Next
-StanO
I wonder if he'll become the LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY) for the Phils :P
-Natron
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Ollie P
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Go Jump off a Cliff (Lee)
JD Drew and Baseball Economics
Jeter Contract Talks
Mark Reynolds
Reyes vs. Crawford - Response
Reyes vs. Crawford
Lance Berkman - Part 7
Lance Berkman - Part 6
Lance Berkman - Part 5
Lance Berkman - Part 4
Lance Berkman - Part 3
Lance Berkman - Part 2
Lance Berkman - Part 1
What is he Werth, again?
What is he Werth? Guest Time!
What is he Werth? Continued...
What is he Werth?
Managers - The End (for now)
Managers 3
Managers Response
Managers
The Brewers pruned an initial list of about 20 candidates down to eight, and Roenicke outlasted Bobby Valentine, Bob Melvin, Eric Wedge and Joey Cora, among others, to land a two-year deal with a club option for 2013.
Holy crap this is the goldmine!
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.
Let's look at this together tonight I'm not gonna go through it all right now. But hooray!
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Sunday, January 23, 2011
HoF: Unheard Of... Conversation
HoF: Unheard Of Confrmation
HoF: Unheard Of
Did you ever hear of him? As Wiki says, he is getting a statue at Wrigley next year! And he seems to deserve it, and yet I NEVER HEARD OF HIM!? Had you? -Natron (11/12/10)
We Talkin' Catchers
Catchers Continued
Baseball Statistics
http://www.baseball-reference.
You'd never guess the only other catcher. But you can look it up -Natron (10/9/10)
Miscellaneous
"Balls have been flying out of any stadium for us all year long," said Bautista whose second homer went to right field, the first one this season that didn't go to either left or left-center. from http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/
That means he has pulled 53 homers. I would assume that is a record for most home runs hit to left of center field (since Bonds was a lefty, and I have to figure McGwire and Sosa had at least some opposite field power). If anyhting, I think this supports the case that he did NOT roid up this season, since if that were the case he'd be slamming home runs even to opposite field. I say this because I heard someone, maybe even Keith, say that one thing roids does is increase opposite field power, and that opposite field power is truly a rarity (see David Wright) I have to say I'm surprised by Bautista's walks total (99 thus far) and his OPS is a booming 1.005. I wonder if he'll get any MVP votes. He also has 91 XBH.
In our debate over NLROY, I somehow forgot to mention this stud http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/
http://espn.go.com/blog/
Most interesting awards races in my opinion: AL Cy Young. Sabathia probably deserves it, Price is great but not clearly better, and Felix just has a shitty team. and for those who think Felix deserves sympathy, I suggest they look at Steve Carlton's 1972 season with the Phillies when he had, um 27 out of a team total 59 wins. That's almost half the team's wins! EEGAD!
http://www.baseball-reference.
http://www.baseball-reference.
apparently he's also kinda stupid. And when Tim McCarver says so, you know you're in trouble: http://www.nytimes.com/1994/
NL MVP - CarGo and Votto start the convo, Halladay could be in discussion, but also so should Tulowitzki (he went 4-4 last night, just an unbelievable September), and probably some others. But I'm kinda tired.
I have no idea who is even in contention for the AL MVP, and I already told you I think Halladay should win the NLCY hands down. -Natron (10/1/10)
Homegrown Mets
SP: niese, pelfrey, mejia (depending on how his arm strength builds)
Closer: Parnell
C: Thole
1b: Davis
2b: Tejada
3b: Wright
SS: Reyes
RF: Martinez
CF: Pagan
The remaining position players are Bay, Beltran, Franceour. F-Mart might benefit from playing as a 4th OF to give Bay and Beltran rest in the corners. Franceour could become the best and most expensive defensive replacement ever. The other option is to continue to cultivate F-Mart in the minors but Christ he's been at the same level for two years and can't stay healthy. I say throw him into the fire and see if he sinks or swims, (to mix metaphors). Besides the OF, I think the line up should be entirely homegrown. And even the pitching should be solidified with youth, the other two spots going to Johan and Dickey!
That is all.
Young Mets... Continued
257 | 39 | 65 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 65 | .253 | .317 | .455 |