Break it Down

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/7976/why-jay-bruce-may-have-reached-his-peak

I read this article expecting to disagree with the headline, and I did. But then again, Shoenfield doesn't seem to think Bruce has reached his peak, either. Looking at the list of Top 20 OPS+ by Age 23 Hitters since 2001, Bruce ranks 12th, with much of today's elite filling out the rest. Top 3, in order, are Phat Albert, Miguel Cabrera, and TAFKAP Fielder. I guess ESPN's method of attracting my attention worked...anyway, onto the Metserology:

Wright, unsurprisingly, ranked 9th with a 133 OPS+ in 2006 (and had a 139 OPS+ at 22). Of course, he's gone on to maintain a 137 OPS+ . Almost at the bottom, but still weighing in at 19th, Reyes achieved a 115 OPS+ in 2006, but only 107 OPS+ since (his high of 118 coming in 2008). He beats out Asdrubul Cabrera, for what that's worth, but stands in a group of players like Hanley Ramirez, Joe Mauer, Evan Longoria, and other fantastic players. Including -

Ike Davis 115 OPS+ last year

Shoenfield comments that Ike is the list's only rookie (also the only comment that is worthwhile). There are very few guys on this list who didn't have at least one excellent season after their age 23 year. Which leads me to believe that Davis has a lot of potential in that bat. If he can stay healthy, even a slump at the plate is offset by his slick glove-work. I hope Reyes does not follow the path of Grady Sizemore and Eric Chavez, who have lost entire seasons due to injury. Reyes is still young enough that he can have another standout season, but in all these cases all that matters is health.

I came out of this article expecting Jay Bruce to have a standout season in 2011. I'd consider a repeat of 127 OPS+ from the best defensive RF in the game outstanding. Now, though, I'm excited at the prospect of our 1B doing the same.

-Natron