Sunday, August 7, 2011

Beltran and the $100 Million Contracts

I think they did get what they paid for in Beltran, with the knowledge that contracts over $100M usually produce dire results. Centerfielder Vernon Wells, Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Jason Giambi, Griffey, Zito, and Carlos Lee all were disasters. Not-so-great 100M signings include Todd Helton, Alfonso Soriano, Beltran... Many are in progress and need hindsight to judge (Tulowitzki, Miguel Cabrera, Tex, CC, Cliff Lee, Ryan Howard, A-Rod, and Santana), but I'd say the two best deals are probably Manny and Jeter.

I got the list from sporcle, actually: http://www.sporcle.com/games/baseballs_richest.php (just hit "give up", or try it out and guess).

I was actually gonna point out to you two that the Yankees have allowed fewer runs this year than the Bosox - and that boggles my mind in so many ways.

-Natron



I think you have to give Tex and CC - and to a lesser extent A-rod - a successful grade for the simple fact that, with those guys, the Yanks won a World Series. Also take into account that each of them were major contributors to winning that championship, which adds to my argument. I think if Beltran had won a WS with the Mets and played at least as well during that year you could call it a success. But given his uneven numbers and recent spat of injuries I think overall for what the Mets thought his impact would be, it was a failing grade or at least a "D."


I do agree most $100+ million contracts end up being bad ideas. Sadly there are a lot of ex-Yankees on that list Natron produced. A-Rod is sort of an enigma. He won the WS but creates a LOT of distractions by just being a complete moron in the best cases and an outright cheater in the worst. He also doesn't seem to learn from any of his mistakes (see poker and the fact that he still employs his cousin whom he said gave him steroids). That being said, his presence has generated a TON of money for the Yanks (through television ratings, ticket sales, jerseys and other merchandise sales, etc.) and also add to that a WS title during his tenure and he's a passing grade, although sometimes he does feel like a failure.


Jeter, for all the talk about how overrated and overpaid he is, was always a great signing for the Yanks. Maybe he wouldn't have been on other teams, but for the Yanks he's worth every penny. BTW, he's been hitting the hell out of the ball lately and has his average up to above .280. Perhaps rumors of his demise were a bit premature. He might not be what he once was, but a shortstop in that lineup batting .280 with a flare for the dramatic is more than passable.

-Ronjaya



Just a quick chime-in: Natron poined out (during a real life conversation!) that A-Rod may be producing at a high clip - we're just talking about the on-field production - but is he producing numbers that are almost twice as good as Beltran's? Because his contract pays him an average of $27.5M per year versus Beltran's average of $17M.

-StanO

1 comment:

  1. First, I'd like to point out that A-Rod is getting actually getting paid over $30 million this year, and his HR incentives could make his 10 year contract worth $300M.

    But back to supporting Beltran, without comparing his season stats to another player, let's see if what the Mets got out of him compares to his pre-Met years. From 1999-2004 (with KC mainly plus that half year with HOU), Beltran averaged .284/.354/.491, playing 145 games per season. With the Mets 05-11, he hit .280/.368/.498, a slight improvement but essentially what they paid for. The main difference being that he only played in 121 games in those seasons, 15% fewer than prior to the signing.

    Since the offensive numbers met expectations, but the games played come up 15% short, there is an argument that the Mets paid, I dunno, for 15% more playing time than they got.

    With or without that called third strike, Beltran helped the Mets get to game 7 by batting .296/.387/.667 (3 hr and a double) in that series against the Cards. Let's also not forget his terrific defense, even upon moving to RF this season, and that he tied the Mets franchise record (modest though it may be) with 41 home runs in 06. That year stands out as the best, but the following 2 years were also excellent. His transition year with the Mets garnered him an undeserved AS berth, but he got passed over in 08, meaning he was a 3X AS in his first 4 seasons. 09 and 10 were mired by injuries, and this season, well, he made the ASG deservedly again.

    All told, forgiving the transition year, Beltran's biggest fault was getting injured for 2 of the 6.5 seasons played as a Met. I'm not saying 3 excellent and 3.5 throw-away seasons = $119M, but it was not a FAIL or a D. I'd probably give it a B-, like an 80/100. This derived from the 15% less playing time than expected, and an extra 5% for the transition year.

    -Natron

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