My Oh My-opic

In accord with your post, StanO, I have to agree that the Mets tend to make moves in the short run rather than the long run. I'm not sure what being a GM would be like, but one of the most complicated aspects of the job must be finding a balance between having a successful major league team and supplying the minor league system with an abundance of talent. This conflict, as with most in this materialistic world of ours, stems from an issue of money. If the Mets want to commit, say, 70 million dollars to players this year - and 65 goes to Jason Bay - where does that leave the supporting cast?
Rob Neyer's recent article (see link in the previous post "Money, Power...and Prospects") tried to address the fact that the Mets have a very backward approach to building a winning team. Rather than follow logic and build from the ground up, the Mets seem to do the opposite. They go after players who have already reached their peak, and pay them money that surpasses what they've already made. To make a business analogy, the Mets seem to invoke the always insensible buy-high, sell-low method. Let's forget about Pedro and Beltran for the moment, because those two were superstars who, I like to think, were sought after for their presence as much as their talent. Without Pedro, we don't get Beltran, without whom we don't Delgado, and so on down the line. Even if it seems like a distant memory, the 2006 Mets - who went to game 7 of the NLCS and, with that last game, could have given Detroit a serious challenge in the Series - were only 3 seasons ago.
So, instead of looking at the superstars that the Mets lavished money on, lets look at a favorite punching bag of the Mets blogosphere: Luis Castillo. Now, I'll be the first person to admit that most critics of Castillo are unfair. In fact, let's go on a tangential support of Senor Castillo. Diminished defnese or not, the guy plays at a not-so productive position. He posts extraordinarily high OBP's (.387 last year ranked behind only Utley among NL 2B), scores runs at a decent clip, and even steals bases (20 last year, about what one can expect from him every year hereafter). He also strikes out a minimum rate (more BB than K is always a good thing, and last year he was at 69:58). Where he lacks includes: defensive range, power, health.
Before he arrived with the Mets, his stats were about the same as what I just mentioned (albeit more stolen bases). I don't think the Mets necessarily overpaid for him, I honestly don't think $6MM a year is too much for an all-star ('02, '03, '05) 2B. What was preposterous was the number of years they guaranteed him i.e. 4. Even in a stable economy, committing FOUR years to a 30+ middle infielder is...dumb.
A big reason I call this dumb is because, well, who were the Mets gonna have to replace him in 4 years? Castillo is now in his final contract year, and the Mets don't seem to have any 2B prospect even near ready. I'm not all that knowledgeable about the farm system, but the only name I could find was the teenager Wilmer Flores, and I could mention that I've heard his name a number of times. But he's still a teenager! Clearly, the Mets do not have a guy in place to slide in and take over - which, by the way, they've done a somewhat decent job with at 1B and CF (Ike Davis is about a year away, same for Fernando Martinez). Unfortunately, C and 2B are two premiere positions that the Mets have no internal solution for, and rather than use stop-gaps, like Daniel Murphy, until their internal solution (Ike Davis) is ready, they try to set up a new plan altogether - like their muddle at Catcher, or their lack of plan altogether for 2B.
For C, at least, this has happened every year since Paul Lo Duca left. The Mets' last highly touted C prospect was another Flores fellow; you may have seen him starting for THE WASHINGTON NATIONALS. They got him for free after the Mets wisely left him unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/floreje02.shtml#trans
In parts of 3 seasons, during which he's tallied 574 ABs and 627 PAs (essentially a full season), the 22-24 year old has accumulated a line of 16/99/.260. Not bad.

If I were in charge of the world - the Met world, that is - I would try to find a young 2B, who can play everyday, and who does not require a lot of money for about a 3 year deal (at which point Wilmer Flores would be 22 and, hopefully, major league ready). One guy who fits the bill could be Felipe Lopez. He made $3.5MM last year, but has never gotten a long term contract, and I would imagine we could lock him up for, say, 3 years 10MM. I also like the 3 year commitment because he's already 29. I'm not gonna reel off defensive stats, but he's held his own at SS and then 2B for 9 years now. He showed promising power (23 homers in '05) but regressed to a more normal pop, while his average has seen a steady increase. Overall, his numbers are pretty similar to Castillo's, even his sb's have been impressive (44 in '06, 24 '07), and on a team that encourages the running game like the Mets he could probably approach 20 again.
You know what, I might not know enough to say who exactly would be a good fit for the Mets, but in terms of strategy the team needs to become more, well...strategic. They need to have a plan in place, one in which goals are set - for the franchise, at each level of pro ball, and at each position. They then have to put plans in place to reach those goals - recruiting in the Caribbean and South America, signing draft picks, and signing smart free agent contracts that work with the overall plan. Lastly, they need to give themselves breathing room so that, if a comedy of injuries unfolds as it did in '09, the whole season isn't lost. Sure, the Mets had no chance of competing with their starting SS, 1B, CF, Ace SP, and 2 more SPs finding themselves on the DL for significant portions of the season. But, if they had players closer to reaching the big leagues, they could have used last season as an opportunity to give some young players time to get some seasoning. Rushing a 20 year old like F-Mart is not what I mean. What they did with Josh Thole at season's end was, I think, a wiser move. But it was the only position they had an early 20-something, proven minor leaguer.
C is one of the most challenging, even if you only want to include the work they must put in with the pitching staff. If Thole is a serious contender for being the Mets C in a year or two, it'd be nice for him to have a working relationship with the likes of Pelfrey, KRod, and Santana (even though the latter was recovering from surgery by the time Thole came up).
Unfortunately, the Mets had no one else they could call upon to get some seasoning. In a season lost to injuries, the Mets could find no positive spin. Instead, we watched an infielder learn the outfield on the spot (not even in Spring Training, but in Major League games), and then switch over to 1B. I love Daniel Murphy, just ask StanO. But watching him squirm in LF made me soooo uncomfortable, I can't even imagine how embarrassed or awkward I would feel in front of 30,000 people (the other 12,000 were hidden behind the Outfield scoreboard waiting for Shake Shack) trying not to lose a "lazy fly ball." I can't talk so much from personal experience, but I assure anyone out there that a fly ball off a major league hitter's bat is coming a lot faster at you than it looks to be on TV. Factor in the spin of the ball, the awkward dimensions of the outfield, and tens of thousands of eyes focused on you...well, as I said, I can't imagine how nauseatingly self-conscious I would be. I heart you Murph :)

Anyway, in order to prevent another season like '09 from happening, I appeal to the Mets to get a LONG TERM (like, 6-10 year) plan in place. The feeling that a lot of people have of the Mets (including the two authors of this site, and Matt Cerrone at MetsBlog) is that they do not have an identity. And I think the root of this feeling is that, for the past 10 years or so, the Mets have a new face every year. One year it's the home grown David Wright and Jose Reyes; then it's the wild and crazy Pedro; oh wait, now it's the cool, calm Carlos Beltran; oh, then it's the somewhat controversial Delgado (controversial because of his "stand" against standing for the National anthem, and because he initially chose to sign with FLA over the NYM in the first place); then Santana; then KRod...and now Jay Ray Bay (yes, his middle name is actually Raymond).
Each of these guys brings a different look to the Mets, and none of them really mesh well to create a uniform clubhouse. I don't mean on a personal level - they might all have poker night for all I know - but in terms of their style of play and their interaction with the media, they do not really complement each other. Young, old, brash, subdued, emotional, restrained...the Mets are all over the place. While it's absolutely good to have a mix, the mix has to be uniform. It can't consist of colors not mixing evenly together, they need to combine all together to form a whole.

I don't think Rob Neyer is too critical when he says the Mets have exhibited a disturbing pattern, but I don't think he's offering any good advice. I'm not sure who the Mets should turn to (certainly not me), but wherever the franchise turns they need to all turn at the same time in the same direction. From top to bottom, they need to agree on a path this team is headed down and stick to it, even if it means admitting to mediocrity for the next 2-4 seasons. We've already missed the playoffs 3 seasons in a row; from my own experience, I think going into a season expecting to build up towards something down the line is much nicer than to expect to win it all, and then fall short by a single f@$%ing game in the last f@$%ing game of the season. That's why I'm not really concerned about how the Mets perform this year. I'm much more concerned with how they develop their young talent (P and position players), and how they treat their farm system. If Jay Ray Bay can be productive and lead some younger guys in "how to play the game" (I'm thinking of Pagan especially, maybe Murphy too), then maybe he'll get to star next to F-Mart in a year or two, for 2-3 seasons.
If anyone out there wants to bring up the fact that the Mets made a pretty substantial overhaul of their coaching staff (and other positions) this off season, please feel free to make valid points. I, for one, am unfamiliar with just how these moves could effect a "long term plan." Here's what I'm talking about:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4898105 Hiring Bob Melvin as a talent evaluator
http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2009/11/ny_mets_finalize_coaching_staf.html A run down of the Mets new coaches
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/mets/2009/12/mets-make-krivsky-hiring-offic.html Wayne Krivsky as head of scouting.


Happy Pitchers and Catchers day everyone.